Value Betting on Football Matches
What’s meant by value betting on football matches?
Simply put, value betting on football games is playing odds which are way higher based on your estimates. Let’s explain it better with an example.
There are two possible outcomes you can expect from the flip of a coin - there’s a 50% chance of either coin side landing face up on the ground. Hence, the probability of each one of these outcomes can be calculated the following way:
1 / 50 x 100 = 2.00
So, anything that is higher than this mark, that is 2.00, will turn out to be profit-yielding in the long run. That’s the reason it’s also called a value bet.
Mathematical formula for value bets in football betting
Unlike as in coin tosses, roulette and poker games, you cannot use a specific mathematical formula when figuring out value bets on football games. How do you think is it possible, for instance, to calculate the chances of Chelsea to win the league title in any given year?! Even if you are aware of the reasonable odds for that team, how do you figure out that your estimate is better compared to that of the bookmakers?
This is where experience comes into the picture
The answer to all the above questions is experience. There are some things that you only learn with time.
It is only when you bet on football games over a long period of time, you learn more about the sport, the betting market, various clubs and also gain an understanding of how bookmakers set their betting odds. The good news for you is that regardless of how clever the bookmakers may act while setting the odds, they’re also humans and are prone to mistakes. In fact, sometimes you’ll see them messing up on large scales. So, whenever they make such errors, you can gain an edge over them and register huge profits. Let’s go over an example to understand it better.
Let’s say West Ham United is expected to take on Chelsea in a home game in the English Premier league. Normally, Chelsea is extremely good at both away and home games, but on this occasion, the bookmakers miss the info that all the main Chelsea players are down with injuries and hence they’re expected to field a fairly new team. You don’t hesitate a bit and place maximum stakes on a home win. The result – West Ham United score a huge win. Although such major blunders may occur rarely, it can’t be denied that they do occur and when they do, you should make the most of them.
The key lies in the correct information
The example detailed above shows the importance of staying tuned into accurate information. While some statistics are absolute waste, there are others that must be paid heed to, depending on the source and the context.
You must consider the team’s performances at home. How well they play in away games? Clever punters stay absolutely updated about the upcoming matches via club sites and online sports news channels. You should also pay heed to the players’ motivation levels, weather forecasts, current suspensions and injuries.
The important thing is to gather as much solid information as you can. The more information you get, the better your chances would be of registering profits. Eventually, it’s all about seeking maximum value from the bets. Rather than simply depending on your gut feeling, you must act on actual information and place your bets accordingly.
About bookmakers’ odds and the conversion percentages
An important question you must regularly ask yourself when placing bets is that if the odds set by the bookmakers are same as yours or not? You can consider having spotted betting value in the event that the bookmaker’s odds are higher compared to yours. Always run the betting odds through the following formula:
1/odds x 100
All that value bettors seek is betting value
Value punters or value bettors look for nothing but value in their wagers. Please keep in mind that unlike as popularly perceived, value betting isn’t dependent on always going with an underdog; unless of course there’s immense value in that decision. Putting it another way, a value punter only and only stakes money on the underdog if he feels that there’s some value in it, regardless of whether he believes the underdog will win or lose.
The bigger picture
You must always remember that odds are nothing but the estimates made by bookmakers. So, if a certain bookmaker sets the odds at 3.31, what it suggests is that there’s a probability of 30.2% in those odds (1 / 3.31 x 100).
If you’re of the opinion that the concerned club has a 35% probability of winning instead, you can leverage the difference and book a profit. This may seem to be counterintuitive in the beginning, as you have no more than 65% chances of getting any returns on that single bet, but placing value bets in this manner is the only way you can beat the bookmakers at their own game in the long-term.
Please keep in mind that value betting isn’t about making winner predictions of the games that are going to be played tonight, but more about calculating the profit estimates, as if the same game were to be played around 100 times or even more.
All in all, as a popular sports betting author suggested, you must continuously strive to find value in your bets and the winners will be taken care of automatically!