Advanced Football Betting Tips
If you’re someone who has been indulging in football betting for quite some time, and has also been consistently breaking even, or has been booking regular profits, going through this write-up may help you to take your betting game to the next level. However, please keep in mind that this write-up isn’t about any surefire betting system. Rather, what you’ll see are some tips that can help you win regularly in the long-term and emerge an overall successful bettor.
But, please be warned – you should never ever bet an amount that’s higher than what you can afford to lose. When it comes to football betting, or for that matter any type of betting, there’s a mathematical edge that favours the bookies. So, you have to be an extremely good punter to book profits on a consistent basis.
Advanced football betting tips
If you’re going through this write-up, there’s a high likelihood that you’ve already mastered the basic football betting tips. You’ve started observing your betting activities more closely and have noticed that there’s scope of improvement, especially when you’re experiencing winning streaks.
The suggestions provided in this write-up are based on the assumption that you already fulfil the following requirements:
– You have access to various football statistics, including team form data
– You’re a fan of and closely follow at least one major football league
– You’re diligent in your betting affairs and maintain a betting log, consisting of all your betting details (minimum 50 bets)
Now let’s see if we can help you with some ways of approaching your bets a little differently. Please keep in mind that we’ll cover only the football match result betting in this write-up. You may need to look elsewhere if you want to learn about goal-scorer betting, goal betting, HT/FT etc.
Advanced football betting tip number one – Always go with the value
What’s this value you may ask! Simply put, there is said to be value in a bet if you think that the odds set by the bookmaker are at a level where the possible reward from it, significantly outweighs the risk factor. In order to ascertain whether a particular bet is a value bet or not, you need to:
– Predict the winning chances of a team
– Obtain the best price in decimal format for the bet
– Multiply the winning chances (in percentage) with the odds
The bet can be considered a value bet if the end result is 1.00 or higher.
Let’s learn it better with couple of examples.
Value bet example no. 1
Let’s say you’re sure that a football team playing a home match has a 50% chance of scoring a win. In this case, you should bet on that possibility only if the price available to you is higher than 2.00. This is because of the following calculation:
50% = 0.50 x 2.00 = 1.00 (which is a fair value)
Anything lesser than that would mean that you may lose money on your bet over the course of that season. Hence, avoid betting on a team simply because you’re sure that they’re going to win. It’s important to consider the winning chances as well as the offered price, to know the actual value of the bet.
Value bet example no. 2
Let’s play a simple game! What do you think would be the right price for any one side to come up in the toss of a 6-sided dice?
Every side of the dice has a 1/6 or a 16% chance of turning up. Hence, the fair value can be calculated by dividing 1 by 0.16 (16%). You get the number 6.00 in terms of decimal odds or 5/1 in terms of fractional odds. Now, you should accept the bet if you’re offered a price higher than 6.00. And avoid it if you’re offered a price lower than 6.00, for ex. 5.00. You should avoid 5.00 even if this price sounds like a good deal, as it’ll not be a value bet for you.
Always calculate your winning chances in a bet
Of course you’ll be shown the odds first sometimes, but you must never bet until you’ve verified the winning chances through thorough statistical analyzing. Calculating the winning chances of a particular football team may be pretty difficult. Hence, you may need to devise your own method. However, ensure that you opt from among the basic methods only.
Advanced football betting tip number 2 – Carefully consider the home and away form of a team
The general perception is that almost half of all football league games result in a win for the home team. Quarter of them end up in draws and the remaining 25% are away wins. Study any professional football league and the figures are likely to be the same. So, the home advantage is for real!
A commonly used forecasting method in this regard is looking at the current season’s earlier match results, and perhaps even the last season’s results, to correctly predict the result of a match.
As an example, let’s go through some eye-opening results of the 2004 – 05 edition of the English Premier League:
- The champions Chelsea won 73% of their home games, 14 out of 19 to be precise.
- The bottom placed team Southampton lost 68% of their away games, 13/19 to be precise.
- No more than top 5 teams of the table won more than 50% of their home games.
- Teams placed in the middle and lower section of the table drew the same number of games as the ones that had any other result
We can cross-refer the away form of the visitor team with the home form of the host team to arrive at our value betting guide for the game. For example, in a scenario where the host team’s home score is 6 – 3 – 1 and the visitor team’s away score is 0 – 3 – 7,
The raw chance of getting a result would be:
Home = 6 + 7 = 13 of total 20 games = 65%
Draw = 3 + 3 = 6 of total 20 games = 30%
Away = 1 + 0 = 1 of total 20 games = 5%
So, the fair prices may be 1.53 – 3.33 – 20.00
Obviously, that isn’t easy to calculate. If it were this easy to make the right selections, then bookmakers would be going bust every now and then, as bettors would be making skilful selections and continue winning. So, what more do you think can possibly impact the winning chances?
Other form-related factors
Recent form of the teams – This is another popular method which takes the recent form of the team into consideration, rather than the season-long form. It’s based on the belief that a team that’s been winning consistently recently is high on confidence and has also possibly recovered from injury woes. On the other hand, a losing team may lack the determination needed to get a positive result. Although there is truth in this point, but other patterns also come to the fore, especially with regard to the mid-table teams who are generally inconsistent. Hence, an average team that has been on a bad or a good run can always turn things around all of a sudden.
Absences or injuries – Absences of players or injuries to them can also have a major impact on the performance of a team. However, certain players hold more importance than the others, and defense players are more important than the attack players in this regard. It is observed that central players and defenders, as well as the goalkeepers are key for winning teams. If any of these players go missing, it can be taken as a big warning sign for the bettors. The captain also plays a key role in the performance of a team and a leaderless side is always vulnerable to defeat.
Recent events – A punter may also have tactical reasons for betting on certain side, regardless of the actual value. It could be that the team has just gotten through with a tournament and is tired. Or perhaps it faces relegation, so it chooses to rest its key players for the cup fixture. The manager of team may have been sacked, a star player may have been dropped, there could be financial pressure or the players may be getting booed by the crowd. All such factors can impact the motivation level of the team, and hence must be considered.
Derby matches – Another factor that can complicate things is to do with the local Derby games. Matches played between longtime rivals are normally very hard-fought as the fans put all their weight behind the players. For instance, Spurs vs Arsenal games always go down to the wire and are pretty fiercely-fought regardless of the recent form of the teams. Normally, the home advantage in such games gets negated by a large degree, as the visiting team is all the more motivated to disappoint the hostile crowd. Furthermore, with internet, television and global media coverage coming into play, the rival teams are no longer the local sides only. Therefore, even matches between sides like Barcelona & Real Madrid and Manchester United & Arsenal feature the same kind of rivalry.
How do you go about value calculation then?
Simply put, everything can’t be done in a spreadsheet, as it may be difficult to quantify certain factors. However, a form guide or a spreadsheet, apart from some paper calculations will give you basic numbers, which can then be effectively used after a few more modifications (based on other issues).
You need to review your betting log and see whether the sides you’re getting behind 90% of the times, are actually winning those many times or not? Are you consistently losing the longshot or away team bets? Reviewing your betting log in this manner can unearth plenty of improvement areas. You can easily develop a method which gets you within 10% to 15% of a reasonable guess.